Pschyology of Trading

DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

An analysis on CapitaRetail China Trust (CRCT)

CRCT is listed on 8 Dec 2006

Financial Data

Year                               Net Property Income               Distribution / Share
                                               (mil)                                          (cents)
2013                                                                                      9.3c - 9.8c (est)
2012                                     99.676                                          9.54c
2011                                     85.806                                          8.70c
2010                                     77.226                                          8.36c
2009                                     77.084                                          8.14c
2008                                     69.466                                          7.53c
2007                                     48.933                                          6.78c

Other Data (as at Q2'2013 report)

Debt

• Current - 22.131 mil
• Total     - 388.503 mil

Cash Balance - 98.228 mil
Shares Issued - 750, 861, 096
Div period - March , September

NAV -  $1.42 

Business Model

An asset holding company that uses commercial properties for rental in China.

Current Holding Properties:

1. Capitamall Xizhimen
2. Capitamall Wangjing
3. Capitamall Anzhen
4. Capitamall ErQi
5. Capitamall Shuangjing
6. Capitamall Minzhong Leyuan
7. Capitamall Qibao
8. Capitamall Saihan
9. Capitamall Wuhu (51% owed)

Opinion

CRCT provides a stable income for dividend players. Given that its current trading range is between $1.33 - $1.36, it is able to provide a dividend yield of 7% with a PE of 14. This counter requires long term patience and at its current price, we can look forward to accumulate on a 5-yr basis plan.



DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

An overview of fundamental analysis

Below shown is a picture of the weightage of fundamental analysis. 

DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

A Look at CWT Limited

Let's look at CWT Limited and its financial data for the past 10 yrs,

CWT Limited was listed on SGX Mainboard on 12/4/1993

Financial Data

Year               Earnings per Shr            Revenue (mil)             Net Profit % Margin
                      
2013 Q2            7.52cents
2012                  17.98cents                        5397.046                             4.7%
2011                  9.59cents                          2579.696                             2.13%
2010                  30.39cents                          747.181                             24.4% *           A 1-time gain
2009                  5.91cents                            623.929                             5.9%
2008                  12.87cents                          602.708                             14.6%
2007                  6.65cents                            534.658                             6.9%
2006                  5.90cents                            326.739                             8.6%
2005                  5.83cents                            248.176                             3.82%
2004                  1.39cents                            239.687                             1.44%
2003                  0.7cents                              213.250                             0.467%

Average           9.471cents                            N.A                                 7.3%
(2003 - 2012)     

Other Data (as at 30 Jun 2013)

Debt:

• Current : 733.764 mil
• Total : 919.068 mil

Cash Balance: (255.781) mil

Shares Issued: 600, 304, 650

NAV: $ 1.036

Business Model

CWT has the following segment of operation:

1. Logistic svc  -  warehousing , transportation, freight forwarding, cargo consolidation, supply chain mgmt, collateral mgmt svcs, container mgmt svcs
2. Commodity SCM - trading and mgmt of base metals and energy products
3. Engineering svc - mgmt & maintance , supply & installation, property mgmt and design and build logistics properties
4. Others  - financial svcs and investments

Opinion

With the research on CWT, we can generally have some understanding that CWT has managed to grow at an average of 9.5cents per yr with a earning power of 7X.

On the flip side, the company has expanded aggressively since 2011 and currently has a negative cash balance of -255 mil. This does not bodes well as we can know that there is a 733 mil outstanding loan to be paid within this year. From the above point, this company has to borrow $$ from the money mkt to pay off its outstanding loan.

Conclusion

Given that its current is around $1.33, I would not enter at this point. This counter has to go below $0.80 to become attractive for any investor to start to accumulate.


DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

Posting of Mkt Indexs

As you can see, i will do my best to publish weekly market indices of the major mkts. Currently Hong Kong mkt is the cheapest. Thus, we may see more upside to Hong Kong mkt than to Singapore market.


DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

PE of Mkt Indices

7 Sept 2013
HSI - 10.36      STI - 12.52    Nikkei - 23.32    DJI - 14.31  ShangHai - 11.11


DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

Back to posting

It has been quite some time since i've posted any entries in my blog. I'll try to have more updates since i'm been doing researching on fundamental analysis. Combining FA with TA, will probably be my works in any future entries.


DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.