An Analysis on Banyan Tree Holdings

Banyan Tree is listed on Singapore Exchange on 14 June 2006

Financial Data

Year       Eps                Rev                   Net Margin %          Div payout
2013       2.8 -3c (est)                                                                0.651c
2012       1.96c            338.416 mil          4.53%
2011       0.20c            329.492 mil          0.90%                        0.5c
2010       2.10c            305.300 mil          5.00%         
2009       0.40c            313.300 mil          1.00%                      
2008       0.90c            412.600 mil          2.00%                        2.0c
2007       10.8c            421.900 mil          1.90%                        1.78c
2006       3.90c            335.300 mil          8.00%                                      

Average   2.90c                                      5.78%

Other Data (as at 30 Jun 2013)

Debt
      Current  : 156.999 mil
      L.Term  : 234.814 mil
      Total     : 391.813 mil
 
Cash Bal : 131.177 mil

Bonds Issued:  70 mil @ 5.75%  due 31/7/2018
                          70 mil @ 5.5%    due 14/3/2014
                          50 mil @ 6.25%  due 30/5/2017

Shares issued : 760,912,080
Treasury : 490,200

NAV : $0.76

Business Model

A hospitality company that manages spas & hotels. It has 7 areas of business segment namely:

• Hotel investment
• Hotel management
• Spa operations
• Gallery operations
• Hotel residences
• Property sales
• Design and related services

Opinion

Looking at the past data of this company generally tell us that it has very thin margins and their dividends payout are not systematic. The company have taken on bonds issuing to shore up their cash flow and looking at their debt level, probably they need to look at bank overdraft or refinance.

Conclusion

It is great to invest into their bonds as they are paying higher payouts. If you are considering from the point of investing into their ordinary shares, we need to consider the risk of no dividends payout. Thus a margin of safety have to be considered. As of 27 Sept 2013, the share is trading at 68c. The 52 weeks high and low is 52c and 80c respectively. At its current share price, it now has a 10.5% discount to its NAV.

My conclusion is for a trading buy below 65c and to sell around 78c.


DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

An Analysis on Ascott REIT

Ascott REIT is listed on SGX on 31 March 2006

Financial Data

Year              Rev                      Net Income                   DPU
2013                                                                              8 - 8.2c (est)
2012         303.841 mil                99.698 mil                  8.76c
2011         288.653 mil                96.166 mil                  8.53c
2010         207.223 mil                57.714 mil                  7.54c
2009         175.522 mil                45.207 mil                  7.32c
2008         192.381 mil                53.659 mil                  8.78c
2007         154.837 mil                45.069 mil                  7.70c
2006         89.811 mil                  24.577 mil                  5.24c         * 9 months

Other Data (as at 30 Jun 2013)

Debt

• Current: 239.652 mil 
• L.Term: 1077.418 mil
• Total:    1317.070 mil

Cash Balance: 141.235 mil
Div Yield: 7% (est)

NAV: $1.21
Shares Issued: 1,261,596,000


Business Model

A real estate investment vehicle that invest in property for hospitality purpose. Currently has a very big portfolio of 81 properties in Asia and Europe.

Opinion

Ascott REIT has distribute 4.081c for the first 1/2 of the year. While the remain half, we can expect another 4c. Given that its NAV is $1.21, we can expect a full value of $1.25-1.28 for FY 13. For the second half of their FY, they need to tackle their debt as their Cash on-hand show they need to raise additional cash to pay off their current debt. Thus, probably they will be using bonds to pay their big amount.


Conclusion

Given that Ascott is trading at ard $1.25 on 26 Sept 2013, they are fully valued. I would like to see further downside of 10% (below $1.15) to the counter before entering. This is to ensure we have a margin of safety and any downside risk is limited.

DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

Analysis on China Fishery

China Fishery is listed on SGX on 25 Jan 2006

Financial Data
(All values listed in USD unless otherwise stated)
          
Year                     EPS                   REV                     Net Profit % Margin
2013               6.1 - 7.3c (est)       
2012                   7.63c                  604.001 mil            12.93%
2011                  10.22c                  685.45 mil              15.10%
2010                  13.01c                 538.931 mil             21.60%   * Change in financial yr to end at Sept
2009                  9.08c                   383.449 mil             20.37%   * 9 mths reporting (Jan - Sept)
2008                 12.05c                  459.419 mil             20.52%
2007                 11.37c                  406.369 mil             21.77%
2006                  6.70c                   157.082 mil             31.40%

Year                  Shrs Issues               Div Issued(SGD)
2013                 2,046,354,546         
2012                 1,023,177,273         0.19c with Rights offer 1 for 1 @ SGD 0.34
2011                 1,022,262,139         0.45c
2010                 1,002,421,099         0.50c (scrip div)
2009                 860,287,997            0.42c (scrip div) + Offer 1 shr for 10 shrs
2008                 782,080,000            2.19c
2007                 782,080,000            5.51 c + Stock split 1 to 2 shr  
2006                 362,040,000            5.31c:

Other Datas (As at 28 Jun 2013)

Debt
        Current:  191.115 mil
        L.T      :  427.945 mil
        Total    :  619.05 mil

Cash Bal : 318.28 mil

NAV: $ 0.56  / SGD 0.70 (Taking USD 1 = SGD 1.26)

Shares Issued: 2,046,354,546
Warrant: 35,728,154 @ exercise price SGD 1.57
Rights: 1,023,177,273 @ exercise price of SGD 0.34

Business Model

The company operated around the world on high seas with the following operations:

• Fishing and fish supply
• Fishmeal & fish oil processing
• Fish products

Opinion 

With the financial data reported, this company looks good as it has a proper margin and good revenue. But further inspection of its shares issued and dividends, i feel that the renumeration committee is not rewarding its shareholders properly. As the years progress, the dividend shrink is size and their shares sizes have increased much faster than their revenue. I viewed it as diluting the shareholder's value.

With the current debt that stands at 191 mil, they should be able to self-sustain for a year or two before their larger debt obligation came crushing. With the 3rd qtr reporting (as at 28 Jun 2013) with an earnings of 5c (using 1,411,522,895 shrs), we can expect around 6.1c - 7c earning for the full yr. But with enlarged shareholdings, i expect around 2 - 2.5c earnings.


Conclusion

Given that the mkt price at SGD 0.40 (as on 23 Sept 2013, 1600), my conclusion is that it is still a BUY with aim of capital appreciation till SGD 0.66. Best buying range is around SGD 0.35 - 0.38.


   
DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

An Analysis on Civmec Ltd

Civmec is listed on 12 Apr 2012

Financial Data

Year                              Earnings / Shr              Revenue                          Net Profit
                                        (cents)                          (mil)                               (% margin)
2013                                7.2                              405.924                                 8.79
2012                                6.05                            328.654                                 9.22

Other Data (as at 30 Jun 2013)

Debt:

• Current       : 9.521 mil
• Long-term   : 19.95 mil
• Total          :  29.476 mil

Cash Balance : 23.108 mil

Shares Issued : 501,000,000

NAV : 21.99c

Dividend (2012) : 0.6c
                (2013)  : 0.7c

Div payment date: Dec

Biz Model

Civmec is an engineering company that is involved in the following sectors:

• Oil and Gas sector
• Mining and other services

Opinion

Civmec is an engineering company based in Australia. As an investor, we may need to take note of the currency exchange between Australia and Singapore. Secondly, as it is a engineering company, revenues comes in from projects and services jobs which are not recurring and thus making it harder to have stable earnings. Currently it is trading over 80c on the Singapore Exchange on 20 Sept 2013, in my opinion is very expensive. With only 2 yrs of facts, it is difficult to make an estimation of how much eps Civmec will make for FY 2014. But my estimation will be around 7-9c. Dividend yield is only 1.1% which is even lower than SG 10yr bond of 2.50% currently.

Conclusion

Using estimates of 7-9c for FY 2014, coupled with NAV will give us a NAV estimated of 30c. I think this stock has to come down in order for me to buy in. If i were to really buy in, only below 30c will i consider with a dividend yield of 4% to take the risk of owning this stock.

DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

An analysis of Starhill Global

Starhill Global REIT is listed on SGX on 20/9/2005

Financial Data

Year                              Net Income                      DPU
                                        (mil)                               (cents)
2013                                                                      4.77c (est)
2012                             148.4 mil                          4.39c
2011                             143.6 mil                          4.12c
2010                             130.46 mil                        3.90c 
2009                             106.95 mil                        3.85c
2008                              95.85 mil                         3.66c   (7.17c*)   Rights Issued
2007                              76.81 mil                         6.19c
2006                              46.41 mil                         5.79c
2005                              38.518 mil                       1.58c     Proforma Distribution

Other Data   (as at Q2'2013)

Debt

• Current: 648.74 mil
• Total: 855.37 mil

Cash Balance : 62.065 mil

Shrs issued: 2,153,218,267
CPU Holders: 27,986,168

Div Yield (est): 5.7%

NAV (diluted): $0.87 

Debt Findings

A breakdown of Starhill Global borrowings:

• 284 mil       - Refinance at yr 2013
• 159.5 mil    - Refinance at yr 2013
• 124 mil       - Due 2015
• 64.6 mil      - Short term revolving credit
• 18.6 mil      - JPY Bond Due 2016
• 2.2 mil        - RMB Bond Due 2014
• 73.7 mil      - Due 2017
• 131.5 mil    - Due 2015

Business Model

An asset class company holding office and commercial space for rental.

Singapore Holding

• Wisma Atria (74.23%)
• Ngee Ann City (27.23%)

Malaysia Holding

• Starhill Gallery
• Lot 10

Australia Holding

• David Jones Bldg
• Plaza Arcade*         acquired in 2013

China Holding

• Renhe Spring Zongbei

Japan Holding

• Holon L
• Harajyuku Secondo
• Roppongi Terzo
• Ebisu Fort
• Nakameguro
• Daikanyama

Opinion

Given that Starhill Global REIT, has managed to refinance its debt, it did not need to go to the open market to look for refinancing. Thus, there may be no more options / rights issue this year. As Japan has started to reflate its economy, Starhill may just be at the right place to hitch a ride. An estimated div of 4.77c per annum can be expected for this FY 2013.

Conclusion

As of 16 Sept 2013, it is still trading at $0.78 below its NAV of $0.87. This works out to be around 10% discount. Thus, this counter should be able to accumulate on a medium to long term basis. Best pricing is below $0.76.



DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

An Analysis on Biosensor

BioSensor listed on 20 May 2005

Financial Data (All values in USD)
Year (FY)             Earnings / Share     Revenue         Net Profit                                                                                                                              (cents)                   (mil)            % Margin
2014                          4 - 6c (est)              
2013                              6.60c                   336.187                34.3%                                      2012                            23.63c                   292.141                125%          *1-time gain            2011                              3.88c                   156.593                27.6%                                             2010                             2.96c                   116.179                 27.5%                                       2009                            (0.11)c                 118.954                 N.M                                         2008                            (3.20)c                  44.318                  N.M                                          2007                           (3.99)c                   34.353                  N.M
2006                           (2.61)c                   37.852                  N.M    
Other Data (as at Q1'2014 report)
Debt

• Current - 0.01 mil
• Total     - 272.592 mil

Cash Balance - 546.22 mil
  Shares Issued        - 1,710,959,000
Treasury Shares    - 32,574,000
Options                   - 43,889,701
 
Div Payout - USD 0.02
Div period - July
NAV -  73.81c / SGD 0.90 

Business Model

This company comprises of the following product group

1. Critical care
2. Interventional cardiology
3. Cardiac Diagnostic
4. Licensing & Royalty revenues

Opinion

Biosensor since listed on SGX has been in the red for the inital 4 yrs before going into the profit region. However their earnings are inconsistent. But we can roughly gauge that they will have an earnings of 4 to 6 cents this year since their Q1'2014 has already been published on their website. I believe this company will be profitable this yr as they have expanded their capability to include Cardiac Diagnostic products.

Conclusion

This company is price at 97c on 12 Sept 2013. However,  i believe this is the fair value for the company going forward. It would be great to accumulate if this counter can go below 88c.


DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

Pschyology of Trading

DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

An analysis on CapitaRetail China Trust (CRCT)

CRCT is listed on 8 Dec 2006

Financial Data

Year                               Net Property Income               Distribution / Share
                                               (mil)                                          (cents)
2013                                                                                      9.3c - 9.8c (est)
2012                                     99.676                                          9.54c
2011                                     85.806                                          8.70c
2010                                     77.226                                          8.36c
2009                                     77.084                                          8.14c
2008                                     69.466                                          7.53c
2007                                     48.933                                          6.78c

Other Data (as at Q2'2013 report)

Debt

• Current - 22.131 mil
• Total     - 388.503 mil

Cash Balance - 98.228 mil
Shares Issued - 750, 861, 096
Div period - March , September

NAV -  $1.42 

Business Model

An asset holding company that uses commercial properties for rental in China.

Current Holding Properties:

1. Capitamall Xizhimen
2. Capitamall Wangjing
3. Capitamall Anzhen
4. Capitamall ErQi
5. Capitamall Shuangjing
6. Capitamall Minzhong Leyuan
7. Capitamall Qibao
8. Capitamall Saihan
9. Capitamall Wuhu (51% owed)

Opinion

CRCT provides a stable income for dividend players. Given that its current trading range is between $1.33 - $1.36, it is able to provide a dividend yield of 7% with a PE of 14. This counter requires long term patience and at its current price, we can look forward to accumulate on a 5-yr basis plan.



DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

An overview of fundamental analysis

Below shown is a picture of the weightage of fundamental analysis. 

DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

A Look at CWT Limited

Let's look at CWT Limited and its financial data for the past 10 yrs,

CWT Limited was listed on SGX Mainboard on 12/4/1993

Financial Data

Year               Earnings per Shr            Revenue (mil)             Net Profit % Margin
                      
2013 Q2            7.52cents
2012                  17.98cents                        5397.046                             4.7%
2011                  9.59cents                          2579.696                             2.13%
2010                  30.39cents                          747.181                             24.4% *           A 1-time gain
2009                  5.91cents                            623.929                             5.9%
2008                  12.87cents                          602.708                             14.6%
2007                  6.65cents                            534.658                             6.9%
2006                  5.90cents                            326.739                             8.6%
2005                  5.83cents                            248.176                             3.82%
2004                  1.39cents                            239.687                             1.44%
2003                  0.7cents                              213.250                             0.467%

Average           9.471cents                            N.A                                 7.3%
(2003 - 2012)     

Other Data (as at 30 Jun 2013)

Debt:

• Current : 733.764 mil
• Total : 919.068 mil

Cash Balance: (255.781) mil

Shares Issued: 600, 304, 650

NAV: $ 1.036

Business Model

CWT has the following segment of operation:

1. Logistic svc  -  warehousing , transportation, freight forwarding, cargo consolidation, supply chain mgmt, collateral mgmt svcs, container mgmt svcs
2. Commodity SCM - trading and mgmt of base metals and energy products
3. Engineering svc - mgmt & maintance , supply & installation, property mgmt and design and build logistics properties
4. Others  - financial svcs and investments

Opinion

With the research on CWT, we can generally have some understanding that CWT has managed to grow at an average of 9.5cents per yr with a earning power of 7X.

On the flip side, the company has expanded aggressively since 2011 and currently has a negative cash balance of -255 mil. This does not bodes well as we can know that there is a 733 mil outstanding loan to be paid within this year. From the above point, this company has to borrow $$ from the money mkt to pay off its outstanding loan.

Conclusion

Given that its current is around $1.33, I would not enter at this point. This counter has to go below $0.80 to become attractive for any investor to start to accumulate.


DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

Posting of Mkt Indexs

As you can see, i will do my best to publish weekly market indices of the major mkts. Currently Hong Kong mkt is the cheapest. Thus, we may see more upside to Hong Kong mkt than to Singapore market.


DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

PE of Mkt Indices

7 Sept 2013
HSI - 10.36      STI - 12.52    Nikkei - 23.32    DJI - 14.31  ShangHai - 11.11


DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

Back to posting

It has been quite some time since i've posted any entries in my blog. I'll try to have more updates since i'm been doing researching on fundamental analysis. Combining FA with TA, will probably be my works in any future entries.


DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.