An Analysis on Rickmers Maritime Trust

Rickmers Maritime Trust is listed on 4 May 2007

Note: All data quoted in priced is USD unless otherwise stated

Financial Data

Yr                  Rev                   Net Income             DPU
2013                                                                        2.4c
2012           151.101 mil           27.623 mil                2.4c
2011           155.872 mil           40.326 mil                2.4c
2010           155.968 mil          (28.553) mil              2.31c
2009           162.228 mil           40.741 mil                3.91c
2008           111.758 mil           34.437 mil               8.89c
2007*           42.488 mil             20.596 mil             5.644c         *- proforma

Other Data (as of 30 Sept 2013)

Debt:

• Current: 48.765 mil
• L.Term: 406.043 mil
• Total: 454.808 mil

Convertible Bond @ $0.399385 : USD 50.417 mil

Cash Bal: 57.836 mil

Share Issued: 847,350,000

Diluted with full bond conversion: 1,028,613,067

NAV: $0.63

         : $0.52 (diluted)  => SGD 0.64 (US$ 1 => SG $1.23)

Opinion

After the downfall in 2010, this trust has been struggling to stay afloat. With 16 containerships currently chartered on fixed rate time charter currently reported on 30 Sept 2013, my opinion is that we may have seen the slump in the shipping industry. Although it may have seen its worst day, there is need to see that it expands its services to increase its stagnant revenue. The last 2 yrs of revenue stay around 150 mil. which is relatively stable.

For its debt issue, the mgmt has managed to solve its convertible bonds issue. Short-term debt should not be a problem for the company. What matters is the debt carried after 1 yr. Thus, rights issue or private placement is possible.

Conclusion

With its current dividend yield at around 10%, this counter is good to pick up in the short term as it gives a stable dividend of 2.4c  per annum. It is trading below its book value with a 50% discount, this provide a margin of safety for us.

DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

An Analysis on Ascendas India Trust

Ascendas India Trust is listed on 1 Aug 2007

Financial Data

Yr                     Rev                        Net Income                  DPU
2013/14                                                                              4.5c (est)
2012/13          126.286                     45.288 mil                  4.65c
2011/12          127.515                     51.148 mil                  6.00c
2010/11          121.506                     70.576 mil                  6.58c
2009/10          120.862                     73.793 mil                  7.55c
2008/09          118.079                     57.07 mil                    7.54c
2007/08          102.713                     45.578 mil                  6.85c

Other Data (as at 30 Jun 2013)

Debt

• Current: NIL
• L.term: 205.264 mil
• Total : 205.264 mil

Cash Bal: 45.331 mil

Shrs Issued: 915,052,000

NAV: $0.60

Dividend mth: MAY, NOV

Opinion

AIT has taken a hit recently due to the falling Indian Rupee. This present an opportunity for us to load this counter as it is close to its NAV. Below attach is the exchange rate between Singapore Dollar and Indian Rupee.

As the Indian Rupee has seen its weakest drop against Singapore Dollar, we can see that AIT could be headed for a trend reversal. With its current yield at 7.4%, this counter may be an opportunity for holding on the longer term.

Conclusion

The biggest worry to hold this counter is always the exchange rate instead of its income as its shows the strength of its stability to hold to its genreating revenue. Given that we may have seen its lowest point to India Rupee, it would be worth while to hold to a small position to generate revenue for this counter.

Note: I have vested intereste in this counter for a very small holding.

Updated on 24 Oct 2014: I have clear my positions. :)





DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

What factors constitute to discount buying on equities?

When we buy a stock, we're actually buying a piece of business that we actually want to own. With more than 700++ listed companies on SGX, how do we filter out bad companies and information to find the gems that we wanna owned?

These companies listed in the market are transacted with a buying and selling price. We may inadventlty  buy a price that could be too high (premium) or a dirt cheap company that could be an empty shell company. Using a basic criteria, i have grasp a few points to note. They are:

• buying a stock below/at its book value with a margin of safety
• low current debt to asset ratio
• dividend returns at 2x higher than the 10 yr treasury yields.  

DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

Technical Analysis on Far East Hospitality Trust

Entry Point - 0.895
Stop-loss - 0.875
Profit Target - 0.94

Note: This is purely TA on this stock. No fundamental play is involved.

DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

Technical Analysis on BioSensor

LATEST UPDATES CHART DTD 19 OCT 2013

Unfortunately, Biosensor has moved sideways while waiting for its financial reports to be released 12 Nov 2013. Till then we wont see much action to this counter.

Ascending triangle formation on Biosensor. Will it breakout with HIGH volume surge?


DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

Technical Analysis on Starhill Global REIT

Starhill Global shows a ascending triangle.  Near term resistance will probably be at 85c (200D MA).


DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

Technical Analysis on QAF

QAF has a nice broadening formation.



DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

Technical Analysis on CapitaCommercial Trust

Note that this chart presented a hypothetical case that it will form an inverse Head & Shoulder. 

DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

An Analysis on CapitaCommercial Trust

LATEST UPDATES - Q3'2013

Rev - 94.041 mil
Net Profit - 72.564 mil
EPS - 1.81c
DPU - 2.04c

NAV $ 1.64
Cash Balance - 59.259 mil

No outstanding debt with 1 yr.

Opinion - CCT maintains its DPU this qtr but its incoming rev has dropped as compared to Q3'2012. Much has been pointed at its lower occupancy at Capital Tower and the cessation of yield protection at George Street. The mkt expects the office rental to be revised upwards, thus CCT looks to be position for the ride. My opinion is to HOLD this stock as it is still below its book value with a Div yield @ 5.7% at current rate.

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CapitaCommercial Trust listed on 11 May 2004

Financial Data

Yr                 Rev                   Net Income                DPU
2013                                                                        8c
2012           375.806 mil           295.524 mil             8.05c
2011           361.242 mil           277.315 mil             7.52c
2010           391.911 mil           298.983 mil             7.83c
2009           403.323 mil           220.957 mil             7.06c
2008           335.285 mil           233.471 mil             11.0c
2007           240.078 mil           173.996 mil             8.70c
2006           155.722 mil           114.668 mil             7.33c
2005           115.131 mil            84.252 mil              6.81c

Other Data (as at 30 Jun 2013)

Debt

• Current: 801.416 mil
• L.Term: 1196.576 mil
• Total: 1991.180 mil

Cash Balance : 74.652 mil

Shares Issued : 2,374,598,116
Outstanding Convertible Bonds:

• $190.3 mil @ 2.7% with conversion price at $1.2324 due in 2015
• $175 mil @ 2.5% with conversion price at $ 1.6394 due in 2017

NAV: $1.65

Opinion

Currently, CCT is undervalued as compared with its book value of $1.65. With its current shr price at $1.43 (11 Oct 2013), and its reporting date on 18 Oct 2013, this counter may pick up slightly but wont be a big affair. Its dividend payment is around Feb and Aug semi-annually. This counter offers a DIV yield of 5.6%
and estimated 8c this year.

Looking at its current debt and its Debt reporting presentation on 14 Aug 2013, this counter managed to refinance its debt. The rest of its debt are 300 mil @ yr 2014, 430 mil @ yr 2015, 808 mil @  yr 2016. I believe they will need short term loans or Medium Term Note to pay off its debt.

Conclusion

This counter is for long term holding. Accumulate as its share price goes lower.



DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

An Analysis on Indofood Agri Resources

Indofood Agri is listed on 14 Feb 2007 on the Singapore Mainboard

(All listed values are in Indonesia Rupiah unless otherwise stated)

Financial Data

Yr             Eps                   Rev                    Net % Profit Margin
2013         250 (est)
2012         730                 13845 mil                   13.13%
2011        1031                12605 mil                    20.95%
2010         974                 9484 mil                      20.09%
2009        1061                9040 mil                      22.71%
2008         550                 11840 mil                     9.01%
2007*       671                 6505 mil                      15.28 %

Ave           836                                                    15.36%

Note: Yr 2007 is a proforma year

Other Data (as at 30 Jun 2013)

Debt:

• Current: 3023.159 mil
• L.Term: 4698.939 mil
• Total   : 7722.098 mil

Cash Bal: 3965.056 mil

Shares Issued: 1,434,283,000
Treasury:      13,500,000

NAV : 9658 rp

Business Model

 http://www.indofoodagri.com/business.html

Opinion

Looking at Indoagri, my first surprise is the eps that it had earned for the 1st half of the year. At only 120 rupiah, i feel that this company is going to be a letdown for its entire year. While tabulating its 6 yrs of financial data, it looks like this year earning is worst off than 2008, where the whole world mkt collapse.

Conclusion

Palm oil has seen its hays days. With intense competition, low demand and poor margins, it is better to put this counter on the watchlist  till it can prove that it can earn back its revenue.




DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

Technical Analysis of Mapletree Greater Commercial Trust

MGCC was chosen as you can see from this chart that it has a forms a base at around 86c before going higher to 96c then coming down to its support at 89c. Thus it forms a higher low. Although it looks like having a cup and handle pattern, this may be negated if it consolidates around 89c.

The reporting date for this company is on 31 Oct. As expected they are giving put Dividends of around 3c which will bring abt a fair value of 96-98c. Thus in my opinion, we can load on this counter,


DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

Technical Analysis on Mapletree Logistics Trust

As you can see from the daily chart, this stock is trading sideway between 1.04 - 1.115. The weekly chart show a convergence in MACD histogram.

Thus, with its reporting date on 17 Oct 2013 coming, expect some action underway for this counter.  Estimated Dividend for this stock is 1.8c.

Entry point : 1.045
Profit target : 1.10
Stop loss: 1.035

Note: There is no fundamental play for this chart. Purely on TA analysis.

DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

Technical Analysis on China Fishery

DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

An Analysis on Sabana REIT

Sabana REIT is listed on 26 Nov 2010

Financial Data

Yr                Rev              Net Income              DPU
2013           86 mil (est)      80 mil (est)            9.70c (est)
2012           81.768 mil      76.937 mil             9.28c

2011           76.945 mil      73.074 mil             9.53c

Other Data (as at 30 June 2013)

Debt:

• Current:  Nil
• L.Term : 417.291 mil
• Total    : 417.291 mil

Borrowing breakdown

• 100.2 mil 3-yr term CMF (Commodity Murabaha Facilities) due in Nov 2004
• 177.6 mil 3-yr term CMF due in Aug 2015
• 75 mil 5-yr term CMF due in 2017
• 72.5 mil @ 4.5% Convertible Sukuk due 2017. Where the convertible sukuk can be converted to shares @ $1.1933

Cash Bal: 13.442 mil

Shares Issued: 649, 704,185

As of 24 Sep 2013, a private placement of 40,000,000 units @ $1 has been carried out. This will rank pari pasu with the normal shares. Thus total share has been enlarged to 689, 704, 185. This constitutes to about 6% dilution in the ordinary shareholding.

NAV: $1.09

Business Model

http://www.sabana-reit.com/about.html

Opinion

With an estmated 8% div yield Sabana REIT looks good to any investor who is looking for long term gains. However upon researching this REIT, we may need to take note of a few issues:

• The REIT does 100% payout every qtr, they do not have any capital reservation for expansion
• In order to increase their revenue, their only way is by borrowing from the market to fund any acquisition. Thus, their borrowings will be subjected to market prevalent rates.
• Any increase in the 10-yr treasury rates of Singapore Bond, the market will force this REIT to lower their mkt price in order to maintain the yields abv 7%.

Conclusion

As this REIT is fully funded by debt, we may need a large margin of safety in order to keep this REIT for long term. If we're to assume that the 10-yr treasury yield is going to increase by 1% to 3.5%,  we may need to have at least a minimum of 10% buffer to its book value for us as an investor to enter to this stock.


DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

An Analysis on Pan United Corporation

Pan United is listed on SGX on 22 Dec 1993

Financial Data

Year             Eps                   Rev                   Net Profit % Margin
2013         6.5 - 7c (est)
2012           7.80c                  715.327 mil             7.2%
2011           5.40c                  512.679 mil             7.5%
2010           3.70c                  391.392 mil             7.0%
2009           6.30c                  470.801 mil             8.7%

2008           9.10c                  553.048 mil             9.65%
2007           6.03c                  436.988 mil             9.15%

Ave             6.40c                                                 8.2%

Unfortunately, i'm unable to get any info from 1994 to 2006. Thus i've put up the latest 5 yr earnings.

Other Data (as at 30 Jun 2013)

Debt

• Current : 0.676 mil
• L.Term : 73.13 mil
• Total    : 73.806 mil

Cash Bal : 91.507 mil

Shrs Issued: 559, 330, 160

NAV : $0.59

Business Model

A diversified group that comprise of the following business:

• Basic building resources
• Ports & Logistics
• Shipping

Opinion

In my opinion, this company has proper management and good earnings. Its earning are stable even when the crisis hits in 2009, it manages to have a 3c returns. Its business are diversified thus even if one sector is down, it is still able to depend on other business segment. Its distributes ard 5% dividend annually.

Conclusion

I would love to accumulate this counter if it is around 65 -70c range. Given that it is trading at 90c on 3 Oct 2013, would we have to chance to own this wonderful company?





DISCLAIMER The ideas expressed in this blog should not be used to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.